A new round of polls from Morning Consult and Bloomberg News suggests that Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is beating or tied with former President Donald Trump in every major swing state.

According to the survey of 4,962 registered voters conducted between August 23 and 27, Harris leads by 2 points in Georgia and North Carolina, 3 points in Michigan, 4 points in Nevada and Pennsylvania, a whopping 8 points in Wisconsin, and tied with Trump in Arizona.

In July, the same poll found that Trump boasted a lead over President Joe Biden in all of those states except for Michigan and Wisconsin.

New Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls, via @playbookdc:

Wisconsin
Harris 52
Trump 44

Pennsylvania
Harris 51
Trump 47

Nevada
Harris 49
Trump 45

Michigan
Harris 49
Trump 46

NC/Georgia
Harris 49
Trump 47

Arizona
Harris 48
Trump 48

Averages not as good. PA lead worth watching. pic.twitter.com/1iaRkliFZg

— Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) August 30, 2024

The results come as welcome news going into Labor Day weekend and the home stretch of the campaign.

Harris’s lead in Pennsylvania is particularly noteworthy given the state’s outsized importance in the Electoral College. On Thursday, elections analyst Nate Silver’s electoral forecast model shifted to favor Trump for the first time since August 3, giving the former president a 52.4% chance of reclaiming the White House.

He called Pennsylvania the “one big reason” for the shift, noting that it is “the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time” in his model “and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today).”

“The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race,” he wrote. “And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.”

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