Democrats may “tenuous” leads over their GOP rivals ahead of the midterms despite what polling suggests, warned NBC’s national political correspondent Steve Kornacki Monday.

To have success in the Senate, Democrats “need to pick up at least four” of the Republican seats the party is targeting, Kornacki added. But that may not be easy.

As he put it, “Some of these seats, by the way, in very pro-Trump states over the last decade. But I say at least four because there are also a couple of Democratic-held seats here. Republicans think they can flip it, and if Republicans flip those, it really complicates the math for Democrats.”

Of the GOP-occupied states, Kornacki explained:

You see the numbers with Trump’s approval rating declining, and you hear the chatter of Democrats saying blue wave, Republicans fearing it. This is why, this is what the polls are showing. These are the races that Democrats are targeting. Republican-held seats, and the polls, to some degree here, have the Democrats ahead in all of them. Now, one of them here, North Carolina, you see kind of an outlier. That’s a big lead there for the Democrat. Even Republicans, when you look at how they’re spending their resources, they seem to be moving away from North Carolina. But it is close everywhere else … they are leads for Democrats, but they are tenuous as well.

Some of the states in question were won by Trump by wide margins in 2024, even after polling that predicted Democrat wins.

“I mean, look, Republicans in the Trump era have gotten used to seeing polls like this in states like this and saying, ‘Got them just where we want them’, because we’ve seen it in places — Ohio, Iowa come to mind,” he said. “Even you can go back, there was a Senate race in Kansas in 2020. Polls looked really promising for the Democrats, Republican ended up winning by double digits, so that Trump vote has been missed before doesn’t always show up. A lot of theories why, but if that happens again, these numbers can change in a hurry.”

Watch the above via NBC.

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