President Donald Trump might be giving up the battleground state of Michigan without much of a fight. Multiple media outlets reported on Wednesday that both the Trump campaign and his super PAC have stopped buying television and radio ads there.

McClatchy reporter Dave Catanese reported that the campaign was still running ads in other swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but had gone dark in Michigan last week. The New York Times noted that Trump’s spending in Michigan had dropped below what it was directing to much smaller states like Iowa and Nevada, and the campaign hadn’t run an ad in Detroit, the state’s largest media market, since July 3.

Meanwhile, Trump-allied super PAC America First Action hadn’t run any ads there since July 2. An adviser to the PAC “insisted” to Catanese that Michigan was still a winnable state. “We’re looking at the map and basing our investment decisions on the most reliable pathway to 270 electoral college votes,” he said.

Former Vice President Joe Biden‘s campaign reportedly doubled its total advertising in Michigan from June to July, and the Trump campaign dropped its spending from $2.5 million in June to $1 million in July, and no ads currently running. Biden super PACs further added to the spending divide, dropping almost $3 million more into the state.

Trump won a narrow victory in Michigan in 2016 but has trailed in the polls all year; RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Biden currently enjoying an 8 point lead.

To be fair, the 2016 polls also showed Trump losing Michigan and were obviously proven wrong, but political observers in the state still point to issues like poor approval ratings for the president’s handling of the economy and the coronavirus pandemic as weaknesses that the first time candidate didn’t have four years ago.

The Times also pointed to Trump’s public and bitter feuding with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer over the pandemic response, growing weakness with suburban voters in the state, and increased motivation among Black voters to vote against him — plus trends over the past four years showing potentially growing Democratic strength:

After Mr. Trump carried Michigan in 2016 by only 10,704 votes, Democrats struck back decisively in 2018, flipping three statewide offices from Republican to Democrat, as well as two suburban Detroit congressional seats and five seats each in the State House of Representatives and State Senate. At the top of the ticket, Ms. Whitmer won the governorship by more than 400,000 votes.

America’s tenth largest state, Michigan is worth 16 electoral votes — not a number any candidate wants to just write off. Predictably, the campaign “downplayed any talk of retreat,” as the Times put it, and has continued to invest in digital ads on Facebook.

Trump will also get some help from a super PAC called Restoration PAC. The group, funded by shipping magnate and Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein, is set to begin a $2.5 million ad blitz in Michigan over the next two weeks.

History may be repeating itself: in 2012, Mitt Romney’s campaign and supporting PACs also cut off advertising in Michigan several months before the general election. Barack Obama would go on to win the state by nearly ten points.

from Mediaite https://ift.tt/339tOm2