After months of trailing in the polls, Democrats have taken the lead over Republicans in the influential FiveThirtyEight generic congressional polling average — the first time they’ve led since last November.

President Joe Biden was riding high for the first few months of his presidency, and so were his party’s congressional prospects. But Biden’s approval crossed below 50 percent for the first time almost a year ago amid the Delta coronavirus surge, the Afghanistan withdrawal, and the beginnings of stubborn inflation — and that approval has yet to recover.

Democrats managed to remain ahead of Republicans until November, when the GOP took over the lead in 538’s average of generic congressional ballot polls.

But as of this week, after tying Republicans the previous week, Democrats have taken a slim lead over the GOP at 43.8% to 43.5% as of this weekend.

Republicans still hold a narrow 00.1 percent lead in the RealClearPolitics average, which is weighted differently than 538’s average. Democrats also last led in the RCP average in early November 2021.

There are a number of factors at play that could be responsible for the apparent surge in Democratic fortunes. Republicans held a 2.6 point lead in the average when the draft Supreme Court decision that would strike down Roe v. Wade was leaked to the press, and became an immediate rallying cry for the 2022 midterms.

When  the Supreme Court actually did effectively overturn Roe v. Wade with a 5-4 decision on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, Republicans led by 2.3 percent.

Since then, though, the issue has only heated up further, with concerns about Justice Clarence Thomas‘ remarks in a concurring opinion, in which he said the court should “reconsider” rights in other cases, and cited Griswold v. Connecticut (1965, right of married persons to obtain contraceptives), Lawrence v. Texas (2003, right to engage in private, consensual sexual acts), and Obergefell v. Hodges (2015, right to marriage equality).

At the same time, gas prices — a major driver of inflation — have fallen sharply, the January 6 committee has put on a series of blockbuster hearings, Attorney General Merrick Garland’s investigation into January 6 has heated up, and Biden and the Democrats have notched a series of legislative wins.

But there’s no telling what effect the fallout from the FBI search of Trump’s Mar-a-lago resort home will have on the midterms. The generic ballot is only one bellwether that might not measure a rallying effect on turnout.

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