‘It Could Happen’: Rumors Swirl of ‘October Surprise’ to Save Senate GOP Majority
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)
Rumors are swirling on Capitol Hill about a potential “October surprise” from the Supreme Court that has some Senate Republicans and their aides hopeful for a last-minute surge in voter enthusiasm on their side of the aisle.
The Hill’s Alexander Bolton dug into the topic in a lengthy article on Monday, quoting several Republicans and some anonymous aides about the possibility that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito may retire just in time for a high-profile confirmation battle – much like the one over Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 that helped flip some Senate seats.
“It seems like it could happen,” one senior Republican aide told Bolton. “We’ll get somebody confirmed. The fight will be interesting.”
President Donald Trump poured gasoline on the fire surrounding the rumors of a Supreme Court fight last week when he told Fox’s Maria Bartiromo that he’s prepared to name new justices. “It could be two, could be three, could be one. I don’t know — I’m prepared to do it,” Trump said in the Wednesday interview.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) told Bolton that a SCOTUS fight could be just what the doctor ordered for the GOP to find some new energy. “If we did have a Supreme Court vacancy, obviously that would be a galvanizing issue for Republicans,” said Cornyn, a senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, who is in a tough reelection fight himself against MAGA primary candidate Ken Paxton – Texas’s controversial attorney general.
Cornyn qualified his remarks, however, adding that “Alito’s been great” and making clear, “I don’t give Supreme Court justices advice.”
Bolton also spoke to Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide, who further laid out the stakes. “If there was a Supreme Court vacancy and there was a nomination battle going into October, it would have the whole agenda change,” Darling told The Hill. Bolton added of their conversation:
Darling said a Supreme Court battle would “shift” the focus of Senate races and “may motivate MAGA voters to get reengaged and show up to vote.”
“An October surprise is when some issue comes up that people aren’t expecting that completely changes the debate,” he added. “That clearly is something that would be welcomed by the Trump administration going into the midterms.”
Two embattled Democratic incumbents, Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), held slight leads over their Republican opponents heading into the confirmation fight but wound up losing. They both later blamed the high-profile battle over Kavanaugh for impacting their races.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) also spoke to Bolton about a potential Supreme Court vacancy before the midterms, saying he’s “seen the articles” and added, “the rumor started somewhere.”
“Depends on their health,” Kennedy said of Alito, who is 76, and Justice Clarence Thomas, who is 77. “I don’t know where this rumor came from; it may well be true,” Kennedy concluded.
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