Photo credit: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds, AFP/Getty-Images.

Former Trump 2016 campaign aide George Papadopoulos, recently released after serving 12 days in prison for lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russia, has filed campaign paperwork to run for Congress in the California House district now vacant after Democratic Rep. Katie Hill’s resignation.

According to Roll Call, Papadopoulos filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC on Tuesday. However, if Papadopoulos follows through and launches an official campaign, he faces long odds of success in California’s 25th district,

First off, Papadopoulos will have to navigate an already crowded GOP primary. After Hill’s abrupt resignation following revelations of her intimate relationship with a campaign aide, former Congressman Steve Knight, who Hill defeated in 2018, announced he’s considering a run for the seat again. In addition, two other established Republicans, Navy veteran Mike Garcia and Lancaster City Council member Angela Underwood-Jacobs, have already launched campaigns and raised hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Even if Papadopoulos were to become the Republican candidate, winning back the district would be difficult. California’s 25th district in suburban northern Los Angeles, a one-time Republican enclave, has been rapidly trending blue of late — in 2016, Hillary Clinton won it by seven percentage points over Donald Trump. And in 2018, Hill defeated incumbent Republican Steve Knight by nine points.