With just 2 days to go until Election Day, former Vice President Joe Biden retains a solid lead against President Donald Trump, with the presidential tracking polls continuing to show no real movement. As is usual for a Sunday, fewer polls were released, but there were still a few notable presidential and battleground polls that came out.

The National Picture

The most high-profile of the national polls out Sunday was the final NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. It was in field Thursday through Saturday, and found Biden leading Trump by +10 percentage points, 52% – 42%, which is nearly four points outside the margin of error. This last survey’s results represents just a one-point drop in net difference from the previous NBC/WSJ poll two week ago, which had Biden at 53%, Trump at 42%.

Also of note, Biden’s 10-point lead stands in stark contrast to the final NBC/WSJ poll from four years ago, which was also released two days before Election Day and had Hillary Clinton beating Trump by just four percentage points, 44% – 40%. That 2016 poll had nearly 10 percent undecided voters, while in its 2020 version, the number still unsure of their presidential vote has shrunk to three percent. Clinton ultimately won the popular vote, 48.3% – 46.2%.

The NBC/WSJ poll did not seem to have a noticeable effect when factored into the main presidential poll trackers, however. FiveThirtyEight’s average held steady from the day before with Biden leading Trump +8.6 points, 52.0% – 43.4%. RealClearPolitics’ average ticked down slightly from Saturday, to a +7.2-point lead for Biden over Trump.

But it’s important to understand that the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, the leading aggregates of polls, are very different from each other. You can read about those differences here.

Battleground States

Among the major swing state polls released on Sunday were four key races surveyed by the New York Times/Siena College. That poll found Biden ticking upward in Arizona, with a +6 lead, 49% – 43%, holding steady in Florida with a +3 lead, 47% – 44%, right on the current average in Pennsylvania with a +6 lead, 49% – 43%, and commanding a strong majority in Wisconsin with a +11 lead, 52% – 41%.

The final ABC/Washington Post poll had both good and bad news for both candidates. It appeared to confirm Biden’s strength in Pennsylvania, finding the Democrat ahead there by +7, 51% – 44%. But it showing Trump eking out a +2 lead over Biden in Florida, 50% – 48%. Meanwhile, local pollster EPIC-MRA, which is based in Michigan, found Biden with a solid lead of +7 in that state, 52% – 46%.

As a result, Florida’s average tightened to a near flat-footed tie in the RealClearPolitics top battleground tracker. Arizona, which had flip-flopped from a Trump lead to a tie to a narrow Biden lead on Saturday, pushed past a full percentage point in Biden’s favor, thanks to the NYT/Siena poll. Most of the other states saw little to no change.

The Senate Picture

RCP’s forecast continues to show Democrats with a shot at 54 seats, and FiveThirtyEight also has Democrats with a strong chance at regaining a majority. In today’s 538 update. the Democrats’ chances tick down just two percentage points from Saturday’s forecast, giving them a 78% likelihood of taking over the senate. The most likely scenario would give them 52 seats.

As the election nears its final, ultimate day of voting, the ability for any poll to noticeably shake up the averages approaches zero. And national polls have displayed no significant movement in the final few days, after a slight regression to the mean after Biden expanded his lead to double digits in the wake of the first debate and Trump contracting Covid.

Or as New York Times polling guru Nate Cohn summed up the state of the national race on Sunday morning: “The president’s out of time. He’ll need a far larger polling error than four years ago” to win.

The president’s out of time. He’ll need a far larger polling error than four years ago. https://t.co/Hxf7du7WBm

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 1, 2020

Still, Trump was trailing in most polls this time last election as well, albeit by notable smaller margins, and yet managed to edge Clinton in numerous key battleground states. And because of the unprecedented early vote turnout, how the final electoral vote results will shake out remains difficult to predict.

Check back tomorrow on the state of play as we enter the final home stretch of the unpredictable 2020 race.

from Mediaite https://ift.tt/383wC6O