A new poll out this week shows President Joe Biden with a slim 1-point margin over ex-president Donald Trump on the question of hypothetical 2024 match-up. A gap closed from previous polling by another drop for Biden and a slight uptick for Trump over September.

The survey was conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies this week. In the result, President Biden’s net approval is down 4 points from the previous week, and Vice President Kamala Harris dipped as well.

On the 2024 question, when not weighting by likelihood to vote, Biden is favored by 1 point, at 36% over Trump at 35%. The margin very slightly expands to 2 points when weighting the result.

The question was: “If the candidates for the Presidential Election on November 5, 2024 are as follows, for whom will you vote? ”

On that question, respondents who indicated a previous vote for either candidate remained likely to vote for the same candidate again if the 2024 election were the same face-off, which indicates most movement would among self-identified independent voters or members of a third party.

FiveThirtyEight noted this week, while Biden is losing support across most demographics, the drop in approval is especially pronounced among Hispanic and Independent voters. The site also gives Redfield and Wilton a B/C rating on their pollster scores charts.

Read the full survey summary here.

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