The Iowa Democratic Party released an updated national delegate estimate — the actual metric that will matter at the 2020 Democratic nominating convention — and the results show former Mayor Pete Buttigieg holding a narrow, two-delegate lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders.

According to CNN political analyst David Chalian, the latest IDP results show just five candidates earning national delegates from the caucus vote last week. Buttigieg edges out Sanders, 14 delegates to 12. Sen. Elizabeth Warren comes in close behind with 8, former Vice President Joe Biden’s fourth-place finish nets him 6 delegates and Sen. Amy Klobuchar ekes out a single delegate.

With final precinct counts still under dispute nearly a week after caucus night, Sanders maintains a clear lead in the Iowa caucus popular vote but Buttigieg’s razor-thin lead in SDEs makes the difference in his national delegate projection.

“That, again, matches up with the edge Buttigieg has in the all-important state delegate percentages,” Chalian noted. “So, bargaining changing between now and that deadline, when that deadline passes and no re-canvass or recount takes place, if that is what occurs, then Pete Buttigieg will be the winner of the Iowa Caucuses.”

Watch the video above, via CNN.